“Godzilla” cargo ships: dangers unknow

Ships the size of skyscrapers now ply the world’s trade routes holding down the costs of global trade, but the risks of these mega ships are unknown

How can we calculate risks in the absence of long-term experience, historian Edward Tenner wondered when interviewed in a recent edition of PROJECT M - Unintended Consequences.

He had in mind the floating behemoths now transporting much of the world’s seaborne cargo, including manufactured goods and farm products. Of the ten largest container ships currently at sea, all have been built since as shipping lines fight to gain an economic edge over rivals. Yet, there is no data on how these mega ships will behave in the long term.

Tenner, who has written extensively on the “revenge effects” of technological progress, including in Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences , says innovation often makes short-term economic sense. “But the complexity of the world is such that they can often result in unforeseen problems.”

He touched upon a topic of concern for marine insurers. “We have not previously seen container ships of this size currently crossing the seas,” says Captain Andrew Kinsey, senior marine risk consultant at Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty.

Floating behemoths

In, the Ideal X, the first commercially successful container ship, travelled from Port Newark to Houston in the US with 58 containers on board. As recounted in The Box by Marc Levinson, the container revolutionized bulk shipping. By the end of the, the majority of consumer goods coming to the US were shipped by container and the global economic growth sparked by their development is still being realized today.

Some 90% of global trade now goes via the sea and an arms race is underway between shippers. In an industry of thin margins, larger, more fuel-efficient container ships reduce the cost per container. The Ideal X would be a dinghy compared to today’s super cargo ships. Container carrying capacity has already increased by approximately 1200% since, according to the AGCS Safety and Shipping Review, but a new, even larger fleet is on its way.

In January, the MSC Oscar was launched. The largest container ship in the world, it can carry 19,224 standard 20ft-long (TEU) containers. Longer than the Empire State Building is high, it has the capacity to carry up to 39,000 cars or more than 120 million pairs of sneakers.

Recently an order was placed for three 20,600 TEU container ships to be built by South Korean shipbuilder Hanjin Heavy Industries for delivery. Ships with 22,000 TEU are expected and plans for 24,000-TEU vessels are on drawing boards.

They won’t even pick up binoculars and look out the window Captain Andrew Kinsey

Not any port in a storm

Modern container ships boast advanced GPS and satellite navigation technologies, including AIS, the automatic identification system for identifying and locating vessels by electronically exchanging data with other nearby ships. Other innovations include Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS), high frequency radio, depth finders and radar. Yet, an overreliance on such safety devices has led to several collisions.

On January 11, the cargo ship Rickmers Dubai collided with an unmanned crane barge being towed in Dover Strait. A report from the Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) concluded that the watch officer relied solely on AIS information for collision avoidance, which neither the barge nor its tug were transmitting. He also failed to note safety broadcasts issued by Dover Coastguard regarding the position and movement of Kingston and its tow.

“We are dealing with a new generation of seafarers who have grown up trusting everything they see on the video screen, be it GPS position, or collision avoidance information,” says Kinsey, who spent 23 years in the US Merchant Marine and US Naval Reserve.

“They won’t even pick up binoculars and look out the window, which proves no matter how advanced the technology is, the human error factor is always underlying. Technology can’t substitute for proper training, manning, precautions or experience, but it (technology) can lead to greater complacency, which increases the potential for accidents.”

Cost cutting measures by shipping lines, such as reducing crew numbers, along with overwork, have exacerbated shipping risks, but the size of the mega ships is causing concerns. “There is currently a worldwide shortage of qualified seaman and crews to command and work such ships,” says Kinsey.

In addition, few harbors can handle the mega ships and ports need to be rebuilt, with vast yards to store the containers, along with the cranes to load and unload them. Docking at American ports is currently not possible so such vessels are used mostly for shipping between the Far East and Northern Europe.

The limited number of ports raises questions as to where the ships can quickly turn if problems arise such as with fires, collisions or engine failure? Other concerns are about the scarcity of salvage tubs to tow a vessel to safety.

Voyage into the unknown

What is also uncertain is how the new generation will behave because the ocean affects bigger ships differently than smaller ones. Kinsey notes that “springing” and “whipping,” types of vibration-related phenomena that can damage the structure of the vessel over time, are two areas of unknown risks with the new mega ships.

Technology is a mixed blessing. Our best laid plans to improve our earthly plight through technological means often go awry Edward TennerSpringing is vibration of the hull caused by waves that can cause metal fatigue. It becomes more serious with larger ships. Whipping is when waves act on the hull much like a finger plucking a guitar string. They are believed to be responsible for the sinking of the five-year-old, 8000 TEU MOL Comfort off the coast of Yemen.

“Springing and whipping did not impact vessels as heavily until they became larger. Are these larger vessels going to be able to absorb the rigors of a 20-year service life? Will there be adequate salvage services available to assist an 18,000 TEU ship in an emergency?,” asks Kinsey.

If general average, the maritime law apportioning financial liability for the loss arising from the jettisoning of cargo, was initiated on a ship like the MSC Oscar, it would be an enormously costly and complex process involving thousands of shippers with cargo on board. A direct loss from a sinking or running a ground could total $2 billion or more estimates Kinsey. Yet, even this could be dwarfed by the economic impact of a disabled mega ship blocking a major port or channel.

In the rush to gain a short term economic advantage on the seas, it could well be that shipping lines are setting the conditions for future failure. As Tenner asserts: “Technology is a mixed blessing. Our best laid plans to improve our earthly plight through technological means often go awry.”

“Godzilla” cargo ships: dangers unknow

Ships the size of skyscrapers now ply the world’s trade routes holding down the costs of global trade, but the risks of these mega ships are unknown

“Godzilla” cargo ships: dangers unknow

Ships the size of skyscrapers now ply the world’s trade routes holding down the costs of global trade, but the risks of these mega ships are unknown

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