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The demographer’s new microscope

A new approach to predicting life expectancy could also help to price guarantees on retirement income streams, says David Blake

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The demographer’s new microscope

A new approach to predicting life expectancy could also help to price guarantees on retirement income streams, says David Blake

Breeding resilience

The most prominent cohort effect in datasets across the world was triggered by what became known as the Spanish flu. Ravaging populations in countries around the world from 1918 to 1920, reports on this unusually deadly influenza epidemic were not censored in Spain, creating the false illusion that the country was particularly hard hit. Worldwide, 50 million to 100 million people died. Those who survived had significantly higher life expectancy than those born a few years earlier or a few years later.

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