PROJECT M
 

Living in a world of 11 billion

Barry Mirkin, formerly with the UN Population Division, examines the latest population projections to see what the world will be like in 2100

© Will Crocker

Living in a world of 11 billion

Barry Mirkin, formerly with the UN Population Division, examines the latest population projections to see what the world will be like in 2100

Probablistic projections

Projecting future population requires summing up individual projections for 233 countries and areas. Differing assumptions about future trends in mortality, fertility, immigration and emigration yield various projection variants or scenarios.

This marks the fourth consecutive edition of the biennial report with a medium variant global projection higher than the last. Future population growth is most dependent on the fertility trajectory, of which there is great uncertainty even in the near term.

For example, a scenario in which all countries have fertility that is consistently half a child higher than the medium variant would produce a population of 16.6 billion people by 2100, more than 5 billion higher than the medium-variant projection.

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